PREDICTION SURVEY RESULTS

Thank you for taking the time to answer and give your predictions on our Hotel Recovery Prediction Survey. We've analyzed the data from all the responses we received, and we're pleased to share with you the trends that have surfaced globally and regionally. These answers give us insight into what the predicted occupancy for hotels will look like in the coming months based on the occupancy levels for the same time period in 2019, prior to the pandemic.

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or magic mirror that can tell us exactly when and where the hotel industry will rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic, but we’re confident that there is a road to recovery and that data can help illuminate that road. We're asking you, our partners and friends, to share your predictions and forecasts to help inform the future of travel.

REGIONAL TRENDS

According to the recovery predictions we received, a similar trend is seen for all regions throughout 2020 and into 2021, where occupancy levels are expected to keep increasing and a full recovery is expected in Q2 2021. The wide distribution of answers illustrates that no one is entirely confident (at the point in time of the survey) in their recovery expectations especially later in the year and onward into 2021. The changing market conditions and ever evolving travel restrictions are challenges when it comes to predicting what the future will bring.

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GATHER.  ANALYZE.  PREDICT. 

 

Understanding the hotel recovery curve globally and down to the state and province level in the US and Canada

Utilizing the study as a key tool in planning your own hotel's recovery

Be first to market and plan against the competition as recovery efforts begin to ramp, and scale by region based on the predictions in the study

R E S P O N D E N T    F A C T S

86%

37%

45%

of the respondents were from U.S. and Canada

of respondents work at a hotel franchisee

said insights on market-level hotel demand would be the most impactful tool for recovery

EUROPE

With many European countries grappling with how and when to reopen their borders to tourism (countries like Italy and Germany already have specific reopen dates), we are seeing Europe is the most optimistic of the regions for recovery. 

  • Travel companies in Europe expect occupancy levels to return to normal levels beginning Q1 2021 rather than Q2 of 2021 like the other regions. 

  • Corporate hotel chains and online travel agencies in Europe are expecting occupancy levels to go back to similar occupancy levels as 2019 in the beginning of Q4 this year.

  • Individual hotels and hotel franchisees in Europe are more hesitant, expecting occupancy levels to remain below 2019 levels for the remainder of the year.

U.S. + CANADA

U.S. and Canada show a similar story to overall global prediction with the rest of 2020 steadily increasing the occupancy levels and a full recovery by Q2 2021. The Central U.S. predictions were more optimistic than East, Mountain or West U.S. which might be due to the severity of breakouts being in the East and West of the country (California, Washington, New York). 

  • Respondents are expecting a gradual increase throughout 2019 with December occupancy showing an anomaly at lower predicted occupancy than November before increasing again in Q1 2021. 

  • Travel companies in Western, Mountain, and Eastern U.S. & Canada are expecting occupancy levels to jump back and exceed 2019 levels beginning in Q2 2021.

  • Unlike the other timezones, respondents in Central U.S. are predicting a full recovery starting in Q1 of 2021 with Q2 having even better occupancy than 2019.

ASIA-PACIFIC

The initial epicenter of the pandemic was in APAC, so the travel restrictions and lockdowns started earlier for countries in this region than any other. However, this region has already started recovery and is seeing travel traffic for domestic markets already beginning to rebound. 

  • For the remainder of 2020, the majority travel companies in the APAC region expect occupancy levels to remain below 2019 levels, but are overall expecting to see slow increases in occupancy over the next few months.

  • Respondents are predicting December 2020 will be back to 2019 occupancy levels ahead of a decline in Q1 of 2021. 

  • They are expecting occupancy to exceed 2019 levels in Q2 of 2021, showing that companies in the APAC region are the most optimistic in the occupancy levels being well above 2019 levels by Q2 of 2021.

LATIN AMERICA

Latin America is the most recent region to be affected by the pandemic with it being declared the global epicenter at the beginning of June. At the time of the survey, Latin America has not started opening up for tourism yet and so is showing a predicted recovery behind the other regions. 

  • Travel companies in Latin American countries expect almost a full recovery in Q2 2021. 

  • Travel companies in Latin America are expecting their occupancy levels to slowly increase throughout the rest of the year but remain below 2019 levels.

  • Although Latin America still has not started opening up for tourism yet, the predicted occupancy follows a similar path as the other regions with a significant increase in expected occupancy levels in June and July as well as in Q1 of 2021.

TRENDS BY TYPE

We also asked respondents to identify what best describes their company. The majority of responses came from hotel franchisees. Overall we see the predictions for hotel management companies as the most optimistic with a more gradual increase throughout 2020. Online travel agencies, hotel management companies, Hotel franchisees are all estimating that Q2 2021 will have a full recovery to occupancy levels. Corporate hotel chains and individual hotels are still showing gradual increases but are expecting a slower recovery into 2021. Interestingly almost all showed to expect a small dip in expected occupancy of December of 2020 before increasing again in Q1 2021. 

In looking at only U.S. and Canada the prediction told a similar story to overall global prediction with the rest of 2020 steadily increasing the occupancy levels and a full recovery by Q2 2021.  

TRENDS BY

REGIONS AND

STATES

Respondents in the Central timezone showed the most optimistic prediction but all time zones showed a steep increase in predicted occupancy levels for Q1 2021. 

When we look at the top 5 states in the U.S. by overall impressions we see the predicted occupancy rates varied by state. 

The hardest hit state in the U.S. (New York) is expecting a slower recovery, but is still predicting higher occupancy levels than each previous quarter

Travel companies in the southern states such as Texas and Florida, who are further along in their reopening phases, are expecting to fully rebound in 2021. 

U. S.   +   C A N A D A 

WHEN ARE TRAVELERS SEARCHING

Historically, the majority of users book between 2-21 days before their hotel stay. In April, there was a sharp increase in the number of same-day stay searches as well as the number of bookings. This is not surprising since at that time the majority of states and countries were issuing some kind of quarantine stipulations and so people that were searching for hotels were looking for immediate stays rather than a hotel needed for the future. 

We anticipate that this pivot to shorter booking windows (primarily same-day stays) will slowly decrease throughout the coming months as countries begin to lift stay-at-home orders and open borders. For example, in May, same-day booking window is still abnormally high, but it is beginning to decrease toward what we normally see.

This prediction survey is only the beginning. While the overall predictions for occupancy levels are trending in an upward trajectory, we know that this will change as more countries and regions open up to tourism. We will continue to gather these predictions throughout the coming months to show how expected occupancy levels will change during this ever evolving situation. 

As recovery begins to unfold for the travel industry, one of the first questions asked will be "When should I start marketing again?" To help address this question and others you may have during this season, our team has put together a new resource called The Road to Recovery.  This new whitepaper contains over 20 pages of insights and tactics to help you redefine your marketing strategy, goals, and advertising plans for recovery mode. 

Survey Results
CLICK HERE

Download our new recovery guide for additional insights and best practices for recovery planning.

We've analyzed the data from all the responses we received, and we're pleased to share with you the trends that have surfaced globally and regionally. These answers give us insight into what the predicted occupancy for hotels will look like in the coming months based on the occupancy levels for the same time period in 2019, prior to the pandemic.